By Jim Wasserman , Sac Bee
There may actually be a bottom out there.
The first of several reports on first-quarter home sales is in, showing the number of new homes sold in the eight-county Sacramento region has fallen to the lowest level since possibly the early 1990s. But amid the dreary statistics there appears to be the suggestion of a market in the beginning stages of stabilizing.
Greg Paquin, president of the Gregory Group, a Folsom-based building industry consultant, says the 1,304 new homes sold in January, February and March were almost equal with those sold during the previous quarter. That mirrors a market trend seen in February, when year-over-year sales of existing homes declined in single digit percentages for the first time in three years.
'That's not much on which to build a case for recovery. But Paquin and other analysts whose reports are due in the next two weeks say that while the numbers remain discouraging, they can see what looks like a market bottom forming before year's end. They say the picture should be clearer by June or September.
"My sense is we're going through the worst of it now," Paquin said. "If that's the first half of the year, my impression is the second half is starting to dig our way out or moving forward."
Gregory Group statistics showed prices are still falling for new homes. The average $404,144 first-quarter price was off 5.3 percent from the previous quarter and down 13.1 percent from the same time last year. The silver lining: Paquin believes prices probably have just another 3 percent to 5 percent to fall.
That hint of hope comes with some pretty important warnings: That the nation's economic troubles don't substantially worsen or the financial system isn't shell-shocked by something like last year's subprime meltdown and subsequent credit crunch. What's more, the region is still working through a foreclosure crisis contributing to an oversupply of homes with "For Sale" signs.
Even finding a bottom doesn't mean it's over: The market may be slow to rebound and remain stagnant for a long time.
Still, after a free-fall in sales and prices that has lasted nearly three years, any notion of mere stability will appeal to thousands of area homeowners who have seen their values fall. It also will appeal to sellers who have lost bargaining power in a market where buyers rule.
"We've dropped the price twice, maybe three times," said George Vargas of Elk Grove this week. "We've had a few more people since our latest price drop, but it's slowed down in the last month." Vargas' situation is similar to that of home builders: Both are competing with mortgage lenders and banks dumping thousands of foreclosed homes onto the market and slashing prices to move them. Bank-owned homes have come to account for about half of the sales in the region, a factor that has scrambled standard market indicators.
Real estate agents such as James Becker of Sacramento see a sign that things are looking brighter in bidding wars occurring on bank-owned listings in the suburbs. He suggests the market already is "bouncing off the bottom."
Becker, managing partner of Becker Mortgage and Realty, said bank-owned homes in Elk Grove that once sold for $120 a square foot have risen to $135 per square foot and are going higher.
March closings of resale homes are, indeed, expected to show an "uptick," said Andrew LePage, an analyst for La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. DataQuick is expected to release its figures on sales of new and existing homes next week.
Doug Pautsch, Sacramento division president of Dallas-based Centex Homes, maintains that buyers believe the market has bottomed and is bouncing back.
"We've seen prices stabilize and even go up in some of our communities," he said. Centex, the region's leading builder this year, has started saying no to buyers who ask for concessions that might have been routinely granted earlier.
Some market watchers aren't convinced better times are soon ahead. They're taking their cues from the 10,000 foreclosures last year in Amador, El Dorado, Nevada, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties – and the 5,573 more being reported in just the first three months of this year by Foreclosures.com, a Folsom-based Web site that tracks defaults.
That's a strong sign the downturn may still have a lot of strength, said Scott Syphax, president and chief executive officer of Sacramento-based nonprofit housing firm Nehemiah Corp. of America. Syphax said he wonders whether every time a bank-owned home is sold "there's another right behind it to take its place."
"As long as that's happening the market is not going to go up," he said. "The most charitable thing you can say is it's treading water. I still think the biggest part of that volume has yet to surface."
DataQuick's LePage said banks have sold only about 40 percent of the homes they foreclosed on in the region during the second half of 2007. The thousands more slated for sale will put a downward pressure on prices. Neighborhoods closest to downtown Sacramento likely will be the most immune. But not so the suburbs.
"There are just a heck of a lot of foreclosures to burn off before the market can kick into gear in any big way," he said.
But like Paquin, LePage said sales seem to be edging down toward a base level. "It's hard to go much lower than all the natural things that force people to move all the time," he said. "It seems we're getting closer and closer to whatever that number is."
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Friday, February 22, 2008
Group says more Californians can afford to buy their first home
Information provided by, By ALEX VEIGA, AP Business Writer
Frustrated California renters take heed: A trade group says it's getting easier for people to afford their first home.
With home prices in a downward spiral in many once-booming areas, the percentage of California households that can afford to finance an entry-level home increased in the last three months of 2007 compared to the same period a year earlier, the California Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The trade group for real estate agents calculates affordability based on the minimum household income required to make a 10 percent downpayment and secure an adjustable interest rate loan at 6.21 percent.
Some 33 percent of the households in the state met those guidelines in the fourth quarter — up from 25 percent in the same three months of 2006, the association said.
Buyers needed to earn $82,200 to afford financing of $411,170, the typical statewide price for an entry-level home during the quarter, the trade association estimated.
The monthly payment for such a purchase, including taxes and insurance, was $2,740, the association said.
An entry-level home was defined as one priced at about 85 percent of the median home price in an area.
The most affordable area of the state during the quarter was the desert north of Los Angeles, where some 54 percent of households met the association's $43,800 annual income threshold to finance an entry-level home priced at $218,880.
Sacramento County was next, with 53 percent of households within the income range needed to afford a home priced at $252,920.
The least affordable area was the Central Coast region of Monterey, where only 20 percent of households earned the $118,200 needed to finance an entry-level home at $591,200.
In Los Angeles County, 27 percent of households earned the $86,700 a year needed to buy a home priced at $433,200.
Some 46 percent of households in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, which have been hit particularly hard by rising foreclosures and falling home values, earned $57,600 a year, enough to finance a $287,330 home, the association said.
In the San Francisco Bay area, meanwhile, only 23 percent of households reported income of at least $132,300, the minimum to purchase a home priced at $660,660.
Frustrated California renters take heed: A trade group says it's getting easier for people to afford their first home.
With home prices in a downward spiral in many once-booming areas, the percentage of California households that can afford to finance an entry-level home increased in the last three months of 2007 compared to the same period a year earlier, the California Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The trade group for real estate agents calculates affordability based on the minimum household income required to make a 10 percent downpayment and secure an adjustable interest rate loan at 6.21 percent.
Some 33 percent of the households in the state met those guidelines in the fourth quarter — up from 25 percent in the same three months of 2006, the association said.
Buyers needed to earn $82,200 to afford financing of $411,170, the typical statewide price for an entry-level home during the quarter, the trade association estimated.
The monthly payment for such a purchase, including taxes and insurance, was $2,740, the association said.
An entry-level home was defined as one priced at about 85 percent of the median home price in an area.
The most affordable area of the state during the quarter was the desert north of Los Angeles, where some 54 percent of households met the association's $43,800 annual income threshold to finance an entry-level home priced at $218,880.
Sacramento County was next, with 53 percent of households within the income range needed to afford a home priced at $252,920.
The least affordable area was the Central Coast region of Monterey, where only 20 percent of households earned the $118,200 needed to finance an entry-level home at $591,200.
In Los Angeles County, 27 percent of households earned the $86,700 a year needed to buy a home priced at $433,200.
Some 46 percent of households in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, which have been hit particularly hard by rising foreclosures and falling home values, earned $57,600 a year, enough to finance a $287,330 home, the association said.
In the San Francisco Bay area, meanwhile, only 23 percent of households reported income of at least $132,300, the minimum to purchase a home priced at $660,660.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Energy & Safety Tips for Holiday Decorating
RISMEDIA, Nov. 27, 2007-The holiday season is here . . .and with the holidays comes decorating! The following are tips and suggestions to help ensure a safe holiday season from Philadelphia’s PECO to get in the holiday spirit and ensure safety.
Decorative Lighting:
- Only decorate with lights that have a NOEL or U/L testing agency label. Check wires, plugs and sockets for defects. Remember: If in doubt - throw them out.- Do not overload outlets and extension cords. Never tie together more than three extension cords.- Don’t run electric cords under carpet, seat cushions or anywhere they may be crushed or broken.- Keep electric cords and extension cords out of the reach of children.- Turn off all decorative lights when going to bed or leaving the house.
Outdoor Lighting:
- Be sure decorative lights used outside are approved for outdoor use.- Outdoor lights should be hung with insulated staples or hooks rather than nails or tacks.- When decorating outdoors, be aware of all power lines. Don’t work near overhead power lines or anywhere there is a possibility of contacting an overhead power line, either directly or indirectly with a ladder or other piece of equipment. Do not string lights on outdoor trees that are growing into or near power lines — entire trees may become energized if lights come in contact with a power line.
Christmas Trees:
- If you buy a natural grown tree, be sure it is fresh. Cut the trunk on a 45-degree angle, about one inch above the original cut, and place it in a sturdy stand. A large tree should be anchored to prevent it from toppling over and possibly catching fire.- Be sure to place trees away from fireplaces, radiators, television sets, and other sources of heat that may prematurely dry out the tree and make it more susceptible to fire. Make sure the tree has a sufficient amount of water at all times.- If you have an artificial tree, make sure it is made of a fire resistant material. Lights should be hung on plastic trees only, never place electric lights on a metallic tree.
Fireplace Safety:
- Don’t burn wrapping paper or boxes in the fireplace. These types of materials ignite quickly and may burn uncontrollably. Wrapping paper also may not always burn completely and can become lodged in the chimney creating a fire hazard.- When cleaning out fireplaces, place ashes in a metal container and store outdoors away from combustibles. Ashes can remain hot for several hours, if not days. Discard ashes only when they have completely cooled.
It’s that time of year when houses shine a bit brighter, and many wonder how much the decorative lights add to a monthly electric bill. Bills will vary based on the billing cycle for each customer (what date each month the bill is sent), but the following is an easy way to help calculate energy costs this holiday season.
1. Count the number of bulbs on your indoor tree and all of your other decorative indoor and outdoor lights. For example, 1,000.2. Check the wattage per bulb — one watt per bulb is common. For example, 1 watt.3. Multiply watts per bulb by number of bulbs. For example, 1,000 x 1 = 1,000.4. Convert to kilowatts (kw) — 1000 watts equals 1 kilowatt. For example, 1 kw.5. Estimate the number of hours in a month the lights are on. For example, 5 hours per day x 30 days = 150 hours.6. Multiply the total kilowatts by the total number of hours the lights will be on to get the total kilowatt-hours (kwh). For example, 1 kw x 150 hours = 150 kwh.7. Multiply the total kilowatt-hours by the total cost of electricity. For typical PECO customers, the total cost for generation, transmission and distribution of their electricity is 14 cents per kilowatt-hour. For example, 150 kwh x .14 = $21.In our example, the total cost of holiday lighting would be an additional $21.
For more information, visit www.pecowinter.com.
Decorative Lighting:
- Only decorate with lights that have a NOEL or U/L testing agency label. Check wires, plugs and sockets for defects. Remember: If in doubt - throw them out.- Do not overload outlets and extension cords. Never tie together more than three extension cords.- Don’t run electric cords under carpet, seat cushions or anywhere they may be crushed or broken.- Keep electric cords and extension cords out of the reach of children.- Turn off all decorative lights when going to bed or leaving the house.
Outdoor Lighting:
- Be sure decorative lights used outside are approved for outdoor use.- Outdoor lights should be hung with insulated staples or hooks rather than nails or tacks.- When decorating outdoors, be aware of all power lines. Don’t work near overhead power lines or anywhere there is a possibility of contacting an overhead power line, either directly or indirectly with a ladder or other piece of equipment. Do not string lights on outdoor trees that are growing into or near power lines — entire trees may become energized if lights come in contact with a power line.
Christmas Trees:
- If you buy a natural grown tree, be sure it is fresh. Cut the trunk on a 45-degree angle, about one inch above the original cut, and place it in a sturdy stand. A large tree should be anchored to prevent it from toppling over and possibly catching fire.- Be sure to place trees away from fireplaces, radiators, television sets, and other sources of heat that may prematurely dry out the tree and make it more susceptible to fire. Make sure the tree has a sufficient amount of water at all times.- If you have an artificial tree, make sure it is made of a fire resistant material. Lights should be hung on plastic trees only, never place electric lights on a metallic tree.
Fireplace Safety:
- Don’t burn wrapping paper or boxes in the fireplace. These types of materials ignite quickly and may burn uncontrollably. Wrapping paper also may not always burn completely and can become lodged in the chimney creating a fire hazard.- When cleaning out fireplaces, place ashes in a metal container and store outdoors away from combustibles. Ashes can remain hot for several hours, if not days. Discard ashes only when they have completely cooled.
It’s that time of year when houses shine a bit brighter, and many wonder how much the decorative lights add to a monthly electric bill. Bills will vary based on the billing cycle for each customer (what date each month the bill is sent), but the following is an easy way to help calculate energy costs this holiday season.
1. Count the number of bulbs on your indoor tree and all of your other decorative indoor and outdoor lights. For example, 1,000.2. Check the wattage per bulb — one watt per bulb is common. For example, 1 watt.3. Multiply watts per bulb by number of bulbs. For example, 1,000 x 1 = 1,000.4. Convert to kilowatts (kw) — 1000 watts equals 1 kilowatt. For example, 1 kw.5. Estimate the number of hours in a month the lights are on. For example, 5 hours per day x 30 days = 150 hours.6. Multiply the total kilowatts by the total number of hours the lights will be on to get the total kilowatt-hours (kwh). For example, 1 kw x 150 hours = 150 kwh.7. Multiply the total kilowatt-hours by the total cost of electricity. For typical PECO customers, the total cost for generation, transmission and distribution of their electricity is 14 cents per kilowatt-hour. For example, 150 kwh x .14 = $21.In our example, the total cost of holiday lighting would be an additional $21.
For more information, visit www.pecowinter.com.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Market Stats
These are the Roseville sold stats for the month of June 07. (stats come from the Placer County Association of Realtors)
Total homes sold were 118
Avg market time was 56 days
Avg sold price was $443,187
Compared to June 06
Total homes sold were 125
Avg market time was 52 days
Avg sold price was $500,952
Rocklin sold stats for the month of June 07.
Total homes sold were 68
Avg market time was 48 days
Avg sold price was $510,133
Compared to June 06
Total homes sold were 77
Avg market time was 59 days
Avg sold price was $518,976
Total homes sold were 118
Avg market time was 56 days
Avg sold price was $443,187
Compared to June 06
Total homes sold were 125
Avg market time was 52 days
Avg sold price was $500,952
Rocklin sold stats for the month of June 07.
Total homes sold were 68
Avg market time was 48 days
Avg sold price was $510,133
Compared to June 06
Total homes sold were 77
Avg market time was 59 days
Avg sold price was $518,976
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